NDA 200 And Counting, Set To Thump MVA, Record Landslide Win In Maharashtra
NDA 200 And Counting, Set To Thump MVA, Record Landslide Win In Maharashtra
M.U.H
23/11/202443
New Delhi: The Mahayuti is en route to a record win in the Maharashtra Assembly election, in which no alliance has ever crossed the magic 200-seat mark.
The ruling alliance - led by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar - was ahead in 221 of the state's 288 seats by 11.30 am, and The Maha Vikas Aghadi - fronted the Congress and the Sena and NCP groups led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar - is ahead in just 55. Non-aligned parties are leading in 12.
Within the Mahayuti, it is the BJP that is ahead; the saffron party is leading in 128 of the 149 seats it is contesting. The Shinde Sena is ahead in 53 of the 81 it is contesting and Ajit Pawar's NCP 36 of 59.
Across the aisle in the MVA, the Congress is leading in 19 of the 101 seats it has entered, while Sharad Pawar's NCP is ahead in 19 of 86 and the Thackeray Sena in 13 of 95.
Big Names
Outgoing Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his deputy, Ajit Pawar, and Aaditya Thackeray, the son of ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, are among the many big names contesting this election.
Also in the spotlight is Zeeshan Siddiqui of the Ajit Pawar NCP faction; Mr Siddiqui is the son of ex-Maharashtra minister Baba Siddiqui, who was shot dead by the Lawrence Bishnoi gang last month.
Eknath Shinde faces Thackeray Sena leader Kedar Dighe - the nephew of his mentor, Anand Dighe - for Thane's Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat. At 10.30 am Mr Shinde led by over 28,000 votes.
Ajit Pawar faces a Pawar vs Pawar battle against uncle Sharad Pawar's grandnephew, Yugendra Pawar, in the family stronghold of Baramati. Mr Pawar is leading that contest by over 28,000 votes.
Aaditya Thackeray is up against ex-Congress veteran Milind Deora, who jumped to the Shinde Sena faction. The two are contesting the Worli seat, where Thackeray junior is trailing by 600 votes.
Zeeshan Siddiqui - who declared he would carry on his father's "roar" - faces Varun Sardesai, Uddhav Thackeray's nephew, in Bandra (East). But Mr Siddiqui is trailing over 5,000 votes.
Voting for this election took place in a single phase on Wednesday.
The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats and the majority mark is 145.
What Exit Polls Said
The MVA had only been given a (very) slim chance of upsetting the in-power BJP-led alliance's applecart in the final election of the year; only one of 11 exit polls studied by NDTV believed it can win. Three others were on the fence but even they tilted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party.
An average of those 11 exit polls gives the Mahayuti 155 seats and the MVA only 120, with smaller parties and independent candidates expected to get the remaining 13.
But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.
A majority of those exit polls predicted a big win for the Mahayuti.
Across the aisle, only one - Electoral Edge - expected the Congress' alliance to win and, even then, by five seats only, with 20 seats from smaller parties and independents in play for the BJP.
However, Thackeray Sena MP Sanjay Raut has rubbished the predictions, pointing to incorrect previews of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections and insisting the MVA will win.
"They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha... but what happened there? You will see... we will win 160-165 seats," he declared.
Voter Turnout
Polling on Wednesday saw a voter turnout of 65.1 per cent - the highest since the 63.4 per cent recorded for the 2004 and 2014 elections and the second highest since 71.5 per cent in 1995.
The increased voter turnout has been flagged by both alliances as 'proof positive' that their side will emerge triumphant when votes are counted, although conventional wisdom suggests high voter turnout is bad news for the incumbent party or candidate.
Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis declared, "Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government... it means people are supporting the current government."
Race For Chief Minister's Post
Meanwhile, away from the ballot boxes there is jostling and shoving offstage as senior figures within each alliance bid to replace Mr Shinde as Chief Minister. And that race looks to have exposed cracks in each alliance, with each party talking up its candidates for the top post.
Claims by the Congress' state unit chief, Nana Patole, that his party would emerge as the single-largest and therefore be in pole position to pick the Chief Minister have been contested by Mr Raut, who said the final decision will be taken after victory is confirmed and by all stakeholders.
In the Mahayuti, the Shinde Sena and the BJP appear to be at odds on the same issue, with the former batting for Mr Shinde to continue and the latter pitching Mr Fadnavis, who was the Chief Minister when the BJP and (then) undivided Sena were in power between 2014 and 2019.
And the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar has thrown its hat in the ring too, on the back of hopes it will emerge as the 'kingmaker', although the question of which side it will help crown was waved away.
What Happened In 2019?
The 2019 election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and the undivided Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).
However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar's NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.
Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.
Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister.
The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.
Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the 'real' one.
